Brazil To Join OPEC?

Brazil's recent announcement that it might join OPEC has sure caused a lot of anxiety among the experts. According to CNN, "analysts" are concerned that putting Brazil's big new oil finds under the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' roof could result in even higher oil prices.
Just how do these analysts?get past the anal?stage and become experts?" Either they are going to need to cram and restudy on Economics 101, or they are horribly lacking in understanding about how OPEC works or they have hidden information that God and Newton were not privy to.
This consternation and anxiety amongst supposed experts align quite well with the viewpoints of some that OPEC has great and special power over us. This commotion is a bunch of hooey; It is most likely originating from a misunderstanding of what brought about the energy crisis thirty years ago and what its consequences were. That episode put fear into the populos and into the experts: If oil exporters can wreak havoc upon our lives then, what would stop them from doing it again? Surely not the normal rules of economics, maybe not even the laws of physics. HA!!! Such sillyness from grown people!
The hallmark of the OPEC cartel and the countries that comprise it is the one-dimensional nature of their economies. Their wealth and well-being depend almost entirely on exporting oil. Even Saudi Arabia, one of the few countries that could reduce its production, is unlikely to cut much or for long. It would be just too expensive.
Let's do a hypothetical calculation, something the experts neglected to do. Say Brazil eventually adds 1,000,000 barrels per day to the world's oil output. Just to keep prices from falling , the Saudis would have to sacrifice about $35 billion annually in revenues. Even for Saudi oil sheikhs that's a lot of money.
The impact of Brazil joining would most likely be to weaken OPEC than enhance the oil cartel's power. If the "analysts" had taken a few more economics courses, they'd have learned that cartels, are historically quite fragile. And one of the prime sources of fragility is the entry of new players into the market.
In America in the late 1800s, the railroad companies kept attempting to create cartels but they'd collapse whenever new railroads would request to participate. Why? Because as much demand as there might be for something, there is still an end to it and a new company coming on board would cause older members to have to surrender some of their market share, and so would OPEC countries have to if Brazil joined.
The railroad companies didn't appreciate that idea and it usually led to temporary price wars that sent prices not just falling but plummeting.
The belief that OPEC will avoid this same fate shows an ignorance not only of economics but of history ?and not just early American history but recent history as well.
OPEC attained its position on the world stage as the oil bogeyman back in the 1970s, and surely, the US endured some dark times that decade. But America recovered nicely in the 80s and did even better in the 90s.
"Analysts" may want to consider that there is still an oil industry bogeyman out there that can usurp logic, history, overcome the laws of economics, common sense and physics by their own decree. But OPEC is not omnipotent, and is not nearly the threat that these talking heads seem to believe. Remember, these are the same geniuses that convenced some of us that nineteen Arabs with box cutters overpowered NORAD and the world's most powerful military and brought down three large buidings in New York by flying planes into two of the three buidings.
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